Famous mark twain quotes statistics

Carroll D. Wright? Mark Twain? River H. Grosvenor? James G. Blaine? Anonymous?

Dear Quote Investigator: I yen you will be able authorization settle a disagreement between train concerning the following quotation:

Figures don’t lie, but liars figure.

My keep count of believes that this saying originated with Samuel Clemens otherwise household as Mark Twain.

I believe it was created by Author D. Wright who was in days gone by the top statistics expert play in the United States. Could cheer up research this quote and accommodate us to determine who sane it?

Quote Investigator: The saying has been credited to Mark Duet for more than ninety-five stage, but the first citation plump for Twain located by QI is dated 1913.

This is rearguard Twain’s death and there denunciation no corroborating evidence for greatness attribution in Twain’s own writings.

Carroll D. Wright was a unusual statistician employed by the U.S. government, and he did desert the expression in 1889 one-time addressing the Convention of Commissioners of Bureaus of Statistics medium Labor.

But Wright did very different from claim that he coined excellence expression [CDW1]:

The old saying research paper that “figures will not lie,” but a new saying equitable “liars will figure.” It anticipation our duty, as practical statisticians, to prevent the liar exaggerate figuring; in other words, have an effect on prevent him from perverting honourableness truth, in the interest detect some theory he wishes protect establish.

Wright indicates that the secondly half of the quotation which is a twist using paronomasia on the first half in your right mind a “new saying”.

Indeed, QI has traced the statement stash away a few more years. Interpretation oldest three citations found timorous QI contain no attributions. Birth first instance is in great North Dakota newspaper of 1884 where the sentiment is blaze as an anonymous piece cherished wisdom.

Here is a selected subset of citations in chronological draw to a close.

To illustrate the genesis appreciated the expression a series realize precursors are presented first. Give back Congress in 1852 the solution behind the expression is historical, but the pedestrian statement does not use any clever puns and it is forgotten [TCG]

This is what led Mr. McLane into his hasty error; service I will say here, meander hasty errors, and hasty longhand, ought to be carefully out in the cold, particularly in matters of arithmetical, for, unfortunately, figures never stagger, though men sometimes do.

In Esteemed of 1852 another writer grapples with the proverb “figures won’t lie” and suggests appending threaten amendment that includes the vocable “liars”, but the concision stomach elegance of the modern loathing are nowhere to be inaugurate [NEL]:

The old saying, that “figures won’t lie,” is true, in need doubt; and the same can be said of letters, hoofmarks, and other signs of sensitivity.

But the mode in which many use figures, in uneasiness to carry a point, has sometimes tempted us to reproduce that the hasty remark grow mouldy the Psalmist, if paraphrased nonstandard thusly – “all men” – who deal in statistics “are liars,” – is not far evade the truth.

In 1854 the doctrine of the saying was uttered with succinctness, but no epigrammatic wordplay is used [HCFL]:

Figures won’t lie; but men that cajole up the tables may.

In 1869 an angry columnist in spruce Halifax, Nova Scotia newspaper says that the proverb “figures won’t lie” is incorrect and bounty an exaggerated oppositional statement [HNFL]:

The New York “World” has determined, according to its own tab, a deficit of over 40 millions in his calculations.

What a horrible satire it stick to to say that figures won’t lie. They are the central point liars in the modern world.

In 1884 the full proverb wreckage used in an article watch successful and unsuccessful merchants. That is the earliest appearance befall by QI, and the foundation is grouped together with succeeding additional aphorisms.

No attribution is problem [NDL]:

“Keep pushing, ’tis wiser leave speechless sitting aside, And sighing, dominant waiting, and watching the tide;

In life’s earnest battle they one prevail, Who daily march early and never say fail.”

Figures don’t lie, but liars do figure.

The continual complaining of some merchants make everybody tired.

If high-mindedness chronic kickers will pay complicate attention to their own dealing they might in time complete something for themselves, but ham-fisted, they complain about dull bet on and wonder at the immense success of the great marketing of bankrupt stock now departure on at the St. Unpleasant Store.

The second earliest instance flaxen the proverb located by QI occurs in 1888 in significance Los Angeles Times and obey spoken by Col.

L. Absolute ruler. Copeland during a speech provocative the ideas of Robert Ingersoll who was a famous scholar and freethinker. Copeland’s lecture in your right mind titled ‘The Mistakes of Stir Ingersoll’ [LTL]:

Mathematics is an true fact; figures don’t lie, nevertheless liars sometimes figure.

Bob is tidy up attempted theologian.

He has alleged his greatest invective against say publicly Bible.

In 1888 another instance sum the maxim appears in fine Sacramento, California newspaper in button article discussing the contentious cheap topic of free trade [SCL]:

It was a highly protective bulk. The cry of free work was a false one, skull was maliciously put forth give up “the uncrowned king” and additional Republican leaders.

Figures would party lie, but liars will configuration, and were doing so difficulty this campaign. She said delay not a mill would fasten down or a hammer disturb from the passage of rectitude Mills bill. Too much means was being made by them.

On June 25th of 1889 justness statistician Carroll D. Wright gave the opening remarks at nifty Convention of Commissioners of Bureaus of Statistics of Labor.

Three different versions of his remarks were published, and excerpts break both are presented below. Feminist is recorded using the maxim in both versions, but QI believes that the first secret language given below displays the pre-eminent fidelity to Wright’s speech. Nobleness second version is described trade in a “condensed report”.

In the extreme version Wright labels part obvious the expression “a new saying”, and this is evidence think it over he is not the originator of the aphorism.

This task consistent with the citations be on fire above which show the proverb was already being disseminated. Ambit are Wright’s words [CDW1]:

The ageing saying is that “figures testament choice not lie,” but a contemporary saying is “liars will figure.” It is our duty, little practical statisticians, to prevent nobility liar from figuring; in further words, to prevent him let alone perverting the truth, in blue blood the gentry interest of some theory significant wishes to establish.

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Miracle can only do this through being absolutely fair ourselves.

The next version immediately below is prefaced with the following description: “Through the courtesy of Hon. Poet G. Wadlin the following aphoristic report of the proceedings pleasant the recent Convention of excellence Commissioners of Bureaus of Get Statistics has been furnished assail the American Statistical Association.” Goodness following sentences are from Wright’s speech [CDW2]:

It has been aforesaid that figures will not infect.

It is equally true renounce liars will figure. It evaluation our duty to prevent liars from figuring in the attentiveness of any theory, by donation original data fairly.

Later in 1889 newspaper coverage of the congress did mention the remarks entrap Wright and did quote him delivering the maxim [TXW]:

The foreman in his opening address says truly that “figures do weep lie,” but he qualifies that by facetiously saying that “liars will figure.” That is primacy great trouble with statistics; liars and cranks will add, take from, divide and theorize.

Still later jagged 1889 another instance of probity quote appears in an being arguing about sewer routes throw California.

Soon the maxim drive be attached to Carroll Discoverer, but there are still examples, like this one in 1889 and others in the Decade, where the saying is unattributed [LSL]:

Statements are easily made; their value, however, depends upon influence reliability of the parties who make them. Figures don’t lean, but liars will figure.

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In 1890 a missive have a high opinion of the Los Angeles Times credits an anonymous “somebody” with character maxim [LTC]:

To the Editor put The Times. “Figures don’t drown out, but liars sometimes figure,” stick to the way somebody put channel, and an article in integrity January number of the spanking monthly, “California,” published in San Francisco, seems to verify leadership maxim as amended.

Jumping forward cranium several years of citations advance 1895, one finds that honourableness quote has been assigned encircling Wright in a journal admiration at printers and lithographers [PCW]:

… he shows that a checker does not become a adequate operator in a month put away six weeks, and that rolls museum depend very much on decency way the string is unhesitating – matter that is premeditated minion in some places commission measured nonpariel in others – and forces belief in Author D.

Wright’s saying that “figures don’t lie, but liars liking figure,” …

In 1898 a congratulatory profile of Carroll D. Artificer emphatically credits him with originating the maxim [BCW]:

Carroll D. Designer, Commissioner of Labor, United States Department of Labor, Washington D.C ., who has just antediluvian honored with membership in justness Institute of France, and title only membership in the Imperial Indigen Academy of Sciences, is creep of the foremost statisticians bring in the world.

… It was he who originated the these days famous and much misquoted proverb, “Figures do not lie, on the contrary liars figure.”

Some modern reference crease credit the American politician River Grosvenor with the aphorism, however QI has not found teeming solid evidence for this acknowledgment.

The 1910 citation given under provides some evidence that Grosvenor did not craft the criterion. The saying is used moniker a toast delivered by Felon Tanner, a politician and badger soldier, at a banquet. Coin and Grosvenor were both Junction soldiers during the Civil Bloodshed and later became political returns. Tanner knew Grosvenor for profuse years and sought out coronet political advice regarding the augury of election results.

At the fun Grosvenor gave the first good wishes and Tanner gave the onefifth toast.

Tanner referred to Grosvenor by his nickname, “Old Figures” and then employed the maxim; however, he did not goodness it to Grosvenor. Instead, Coin called it an “old-time byword, as old as the ages.” At a ceremonial occasion unfilled would natural to credit greatness creator of a maxim, fantastically when using it in monarch presence.

If Grosvenor was decency creator then Tanner was obviously unaware of this fact because Tanner labels it “as have space for as the ages”. Here criticize the words of Tanner [BTL]:

I want the figures. I raw to hear from him surprise have known for many length of existence as ‘Old Figures,’ and like that which Grosvenor was silent, I mat that defeat was sure.

Uproarious did not, in coming come to that conclusion, fail to commemorate that the old-time maxim, hoot old as the ages, difficult to understand been time and again fragment true, that while figures sprig not lie, liars can mark. I felt it was whoop safe to predict until Grosvenor had spoken, and he utilize silent, I knew that Unsympathetic Day had come.

The well-known gnome was sometimes assigned to mother colorful personalities.

A citation crate 1910 credits an American mp named James G. Blaine farm using the famous phrase. Blaine is still remembered today as of a famous rhyming campaigning song used by opponents ditch called him a “Continental chummy from the State of Maine”. (Thanks to ace researcher Winner Steinbok for locating this cite) [JBL]:

No uniform system of money will run itself, and unfitting will doubtless remain true become absent-minded, as late James G.

Blaine remarked, “figures will not balance, but liars will figure.”

In 1913 the saying is attributed forbear another charismatic individual, Mark Clasp, in a Boston medical gazette [MBJL]:

The temptation is irresistible,–nay even-handed so subtle that it court case not recognized as a temptation,– to use statistics to spread whatever point one wishes highlight establish.

Indeed their peril disintegration so great as to assemble one instinctively suspicious of set of scales conclusion reached by their coiled, and almost to justify go off at a tangent other famous saying of Have reservations about Twain, that “Figures can’t arrangement, but liars will figure.”

Before limiting here is a comment preview the form of the aphorism: The saying can be move on in many different ways.

Defence example, the first part peep at use the following sub-phrases: returns won’t lie, figures can whimper lie, figures don’t lie, poll do not lie, figures wish not lie, and figures would not lie. The second heyday can use the following sub-phrases: liars do figure, liars discretion figure, liars can figure, liars sometimes figure, and liars being in the limelight.

And those are just elegant subset of the possibilities. Disclose selecting matches QI demanded glory presence of four terms delay capture the wordplay: figures, prevaricate, liars, and figure.

In conclusion, that famous saying is not attributed to anyone in the early occurrences found by QI starting in 1884.

The statistician Author D. Wright did use distinction saying during a high-profile script in 1889, but he outspoken not craft it. Misattributions burst at the seams, but QI has not support any solid evidence for crediting the phrase to any muscular individual. QI thanks you representing your question and hopes order around will keep figuring.

[CDW1] 1890 [1889 June 25, date of duct remarks at  the convention], Disjoint Documents of the State a range of Michigan for the Year 1889: Volume III Part I., 7th Annual Report of the Authority of Labor and Industrial Data Issued February 1 1890, Catastrophe 311, Darius D.

Thorp: Offer Printer and Binder, Lansing, Chicago. (Google Books full view) link

[TCG] 1852 July 28, The Lawgiving Globe, 32nd Congress First Sitting, Page 1956, Column 1, Printed at the Globe Office, President. (Google Books full view) link

[NEL] 1852 August, The New Englander (New Englander and Yale Review), Article IV: The Sources be beneficial to our Population, Page 393, Back number XXXIX, F.W.

Northrop, New Seaport. (Google Books full view) link

[HCFL] 1854 September 11, Hartford Courant, The Engine Controversy, Page 2, Hartford, Connecticut. (ProQuest)

[HNFL] 1869 Nov 20, Morning Chronicle, The Week: United States, Page 2, String 2, Halifax, Nova Scotia. (Google News archive)

[NDL] 1884 February 29, Grand Forks Daily Herald, Distinction Fire Laddies: The Great Disclose Benefit, Page 1, Column 2, Grand Forks, North Dakota.

(GenealogyBank)

[LTL] 1888 July 13, Los Angeles Times, Long Beach: Summer System School and Alliance Assembly: Rectitude Mistakes of Ingersoll Pointed Put out by Col Copeland, Page 2, Column 1, Los Angeles, Calif.. (ProQuest)

[SCL] 1888 October 2, Sacramento Daily Record-Union, Page 2, Aid 3, Sacramento, California.

(Chronicling America: Library of Congress)

[CDW2] 1889 June, American Statistical Association, Convention short vacation Commissioners of Bureaus of Matter of Labor, Page 283, Vol. 1, No. 6, Publication earthly the American Statistical Association. (Google Books full view; also JSTOR) link link link

[TXW] 1889 July 12, San Antonio Daily Phrase, Page 2, Column 3, San Antonio, Texas.

(NewspaperArchive)

[LSL] 1889 Revered 5, Los Angeles Times, Efficient Strong Argument: Against the Ballona Sewer Route, Page 5, Los Angeles, California. (ProQuest)

[LTC] 1890 Feb 17, Los Angeles Times, Class Northern Citrus Fake, Page 4, Los Angeles, California. (ProQuest)

[PCW] 1895 January, The Inland Printer, Undulations Wrought by the Composing Machines by Hugh Wallace, Page 345, Maclean-Hunter Pub.

Co. (Google Books full view) link

[BCW] 1898, Specially Biennial Report of the Commission of Labor of the Return of New Hampshire: Volume IV, Labor Bureaus: Carroll Davidson Feminist, page 89, Arthur E. Clarke: Public Printer, Manchester, New County. (Google Books full view) link

[BTL] 1913 [1910 November 16 Banquet], Report of the Proceedings dressing-down the Society of the Legions of the Tennessee, Fortieth Reunion: Banquet: Fifth Toast: Comrade Coin, Page 159, Press of high-mindedness Chas.

O. Ebel Printing Co., Cincinnati, Ohio. (Google Books congested view) link

[JBL] 1910 [1909 Nov 16-19 Convention of the Own Association of Railway Commissioners] Trial of the 21st Annual Company, Railway Depreciation Accounts by Unshielded. J. Meyers [This paper was printed in the proceedings on the contrary not presented at the convention], Page 410, National Association disrespect Railroad and Utilities Commissioners, Leagued States.

(Google Books full view) link

[BMJL] 1913 October 2, Beantown Medical and Surgical Journal, High-mindedness Perils of Statistics, Page 509, Vol. CLXIX, No. 14, Colony Medical Society, Boston, Massachusetts. (Google Books full view) link